I evidently don’t follow my own advice as often as I should, but I believe one should always keep in mind the phrase “beware what you wish for.” The point is that when wishing for something, one often discounts second-order effects. One estimates the effect of moving a lever without taking into account that the overall equilibrium might shift, that changes here imply changes there, that other people react in ways you didn’t expect, and so on. I don’t interpret the warning “beware what you wish for” as advice not to wish for things and act accordingly, but as a reminder that unexpected things will happen. And it seems relevant in all kinds of situations, from personal relationships to politics. This rant is about politics.

First, for most of my life, there has been among the European left a decent amount of “anti-American” sentiment, with shouts of “Yankee go home” never far from the surface. Some of it is probably based on things like envy and a sense of superiority toward the nouveau riche. Then the US associated itself with some pretty right-wing parties or regimes after WWII, and some of the politicians who over time aligned themselves most clearly with the US were really disliked—and really hard to like. Besides, a lot of what the US has done over the years has been pretty bad/horrible/disgusting—pick your word. We agree on that. Propping up the most horrible South American dictators. The Vietnam War, with Agent Orange and all that. The lies leading to the Iraq War and the war itself. Guantanamo. Helping US service members and/or their families run away to the US after recklessly causing accidents where local people died. Supporting international law when it applies to others but threatening military intervention if the accused is a US servicemember. More recently, the blind support for Israel and the “fuck-you-all” attitude toward climate change haven’t won any friends. The chaotic way the war in Afghanistan ended probably didn’t help either.

Just for clarity: since I can remember—I’m not sure when that was—I haven’t been one of those anti-American Europeans. For me, the pivotal point was the US intervention in the wars of Yugoslavia. Europeans and the UN had been unable or unwilling to prevent horrors like Srebrenica or Sarajevo in Bosnia, and that ended when the US decided to intervene. Similarly, what finally ended the wars there was the US bombing campaign after Serbia tried to ethnically cleanse Kosovo, expelling almost 400,000 Kosovars. Yes, bombing bridges in Belgrade and killing about 500 civilians was really bad. But in Srebrenica, 8,000 people were killed within a couple of days, with Europeans watching and wringing their hands. My attitude after the wars in Yugoslavia was that the US did a lot of wrong things, but this was partly because it did something. Europeans kept their shirts pretty much pristine because they did nothing to address real horrors. I also thought, and still think, that judging the world in completely solipsistic terms is pointless. This means, in particular, that, as with people, one has to take countries as they are in reality, accepting that they have interests and act to defend them, but that one must differentiate between evident assholes and those who often fuck up and are selfish, but who arguably more often than not aim to solve problems.

Anyway, now that the Yankees are effectively going home, it seems there is less desire for them to leave—though I wonder how long it will be until some mainstream left party in countries like Spain starts calling for a referendum to decide whether to close or keep US bases. I also wonder whether the people who have been the loudest anti-Americans see a difference between the US they wanted out and the one now, when the US is actually doing what it was always accused of doing. In other words, I wonder if, now that their wishes are becoming reality, these people remember the warning: “beware what you wish for.”

But this is just one side of the coin. The other is the US itself. I guess the US found the Europeans’ holier-than-thou, self-serving, self-infatuated, and narcissistic attitude annoying for years. And the US had a point. The US also grew tired of being constrained by all sorts of rules while being called to play the world policeman whenever there was a crisis. Now, the US has clearly decided to break free of all that, blatantly defending its interests without being trapped by norms, rules, or accords. The fact that it was the US that established most of them is now irrelevant. What matters is that, in wishing for more freedom of action to pursue its interests (as conceived by those in power), the US has decided to shake it all up. And it is here where the US should be thinking, “beware what you wish for,” because when the shaking is over, the pieces are going to fall in ways yet to be seen, and since the shaking is so intense, some of them will definitely land where the shakers didn’t expect.

I evidently have no clue what will happen in Europe, let alone anywhere else. There is the possibility that the EU either collapses or becomes meaningless. Or that it emerges much stronger. It’s clear what I prefer, but in all cases, it’s evident to me that Europe is not going to become a US protectorate. I mean, it largely was one, but it was voluntary, and it’s hard to see things reverting to that now. It’s possible that democracy will disappear in some, or many, European countries, but even if this happens, it won’t be uniform. In the worst case, in the medium term, the US is going to find itself dealing with a bunch of different countries, many of them with the size and wealth to position themselves largely as they see fit. The US (leaders) might think Europe is on the brink of “civilizational erasure,” whatever the fuck that means, but let me tell you, it doesn’t feel like it.

The US might think Europe has fallen behind technologically and economically, but put incentives in place, and people react to them. China has. Russia has. People in Russia don’t use Google, Facebook, or Microsoft, and while their systems are probably worse than the US ones, they work. They might work like things in the US did five years ago, but they work. I definitely don’t want Russia and China as models, but they prove that things are possible. As a company, OpenAI might be valued at about 30 times the French company Mistral, and there are probably areas where ChatGPT beats Le Chat, but there are enough people comparing their performance—and you don’t compare Terry Tao’s performance with mine. Mistral gets neither EU money nor money from the French state, but it could. I’m not saying it should, just that with US tech looking like a weapon in the hands of an unfriendly US state, it’s possible that it will be decided that it must happen. I’ll definitely take any bet you want that Mistral will not be sold to any US company. I mean, if the French state can block, as it did in 2024, the sale by a pharmaceutical company of the division making some painkiller, it will block the sale of anything that looks “strategic.” Two-thirds of European companies say they want to increase their reliance on local cloud providers, and more than 50% say they want to reduce their reliance on non-European providers. This is new, and faster or slower, it will happen.

All that Europe will have to do—or rather, all that the US is forcing Europe to do—will come at a cost. Partly because more will need to be invested in things that weren’t invested in before and that no one really wants to invest in. Then, there will probably be some price to pay in terms of efficiency. But one way or another, in a more or less chaotic way, it will be done. And who knows what will emerge at the other end. I certainly have no clue, but I’m pretty sure the US government doesn’t either. I hope things are done in the most rational way, that societal disruption is as small as possible, that bad blood between Europe and the US is minimized (though there are wildcards in the game: Greenland, anyone?), but the US has pushed Europe to be more independent, and it will be. And I’m pretty sure that at some point, whoever is leading the US will find themselves longing for the time when Europe was a voluntary American protectorate. Beware what you wish for.